Case, in the first quarter of 2022 on sales (despite uncertainty) –

The desire to buy a house is still growing strongly. However, the possibilities for translating intentions into notarial deeds are jeopardized by economic developments and, above all, by the increase in monetary costs: what has already happened and, above all, what is expected. The first three months of 2022 showed record numbers for home sales, which heralded a golden year for the market: in the national territory, deeds increased by 12 percent, but in Milan, where there was also a sharp price jump, sales increased by as much as 36% on an annual basis. But there’s more: The annual survey of Italians and Nomism’s House, published in early June, reports a record number of families intending to buy an apartment within a year: 671,000 are already on the hunt, and nearly three million state that they will start research in the coming months. Based on the historical data series, Nomisma estimates that these numbers will translate into 884 thousand real operations compared to the 804 thousand recorded last year.

Buyers’ terms

An increase of about 10 percent in line with the data that the Danish Tax Agency registered at the beginning of the year. The survey was conducted with the war underway, and therefore the answers take into account the changed economic outlook, but Luca Dondi, CEO of Nomisma, emphasizes that those looking for a house set two conditions that are not always easy to meet : The possibility of getting a sustainable loan and finding a housing solution that meets your needs, as those who are looking for a house, in most cases do so to replace what they live in. It is precisely in terms of housing characteristics, that it is interesting to note how the needs change in relation to the economic situation: if, as the surveys conducted in 2020 and 2021 showed, in times of pandemic and shutdown the size of the rooms and the brightness of the environments prevailed. , in times of expensive bills, the priority goes to the building’s energy class, stated as a decisive criterion in 40 percent of the responses. This is followed by the interior garden for exclusive use and whether the house is new or newly renovated, characteristics which in any case require reduced energy consumption.

The reasons for the purchase

Among the reasons for the purchase is by far the most important search for a home for permanent residence (81 per cent of cases, last year it was 80), and the desire for a vacant home or holiday is growing (14 per cent against 10 in 2021), while interest in residential investment properties collapsed, down to 5 per cent. We also note that another important research institute, Real Estate Scenarios, through the mouth of its President Mario Breglia reports on the sharp decline in interest in investment: the tax-heavy and not very profitable brick. It will be more difficult to rent for long periods because there is no mobility in the country, the great momentum of young people from south to north has been exhausted, there is the opportunity for smart work, and the cost of living in the big cities is a strong deterrent. Returning to Nomisma, there would be great interest in buying a house for those under 35: in most cases, these are young people who now live in rent, have medium-low incomes and are often single parents with children.

Possible problems

There are two problems: the first is that it is a target made up of people who, without the parachute represented by public guarantee funds, do not obtain bank financing; The further problem is that public funds cannot be activated at present because their assumption is that the loan will be disbursed at a maximum interest rate corresponding to the average interest rate in the first quarter of this year, which is now completely out of the market. The number of families intending to resort to rent is declining: Nomisma estimates that the expressed intentions will result in 671 thousand new contracts compared to 759 thousand last year. Finally, families intending to renovate their homes are also declining, by half a million less than last year, a figure that discounts the decline in interest in the super bonus, between tight deadlines for self-employed homes and difficulties in starting construction sites in condominiums .

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