Many automakers fear losing profits and jobs if there is one transition too fast courage in electric vehicles.
Instead, the opposite will happen according to a study commissioned by Transport & Environment (TE) for the independent research company Profundo, entitled “Fast charging of stock prices “.
The main conclusion is that if the car manufacturers speed up their sales plans of electric cars in this decade can generate hundreds of billion euros in added value in the stock market (over 800 billion in the specific case analyzed), compared to a slower transition to pressure mobility.
As a result, analysts recommend focusing more firmly on 100% electric models instead of sticking to traditional business models centered around internal combustion engines.
The risk is to be outdated of those who invest heavily in electric mobility and find themselves with those defined by TE stranded engines: “Engines run aground”it is obsolete vehicles from a technological point of view, pollutants and is no longer required by the market.
These considerations come at a crucial time for future of the sector automotive industry.
Between today, Tuesday, June 7, and tomorrow, it kicks off vote in plenary to Strasbourg on the European package Fits 55 with the new energy and climate goals, which i.a. stop by sales from thermobiles from 2035.
A goal that could be achieved thanks to a regulation that allows for zero emissions from CO2 at the exhaust of the new cars that are effectively transformed into one executive order to the engines petrol and diesel.
But in recent days, over a hundred are in between companies and associations of supply chain for the automotive industry they asked the EU institutions to adopt more open standards contributed from all technologies, including synthetic fuels hydrogen derivatives (so-called e-fuel produced from renewable electricity).
Their claim is that the transition accelerated full-electric Will do lose employment And collapsing profits.
None of this, sounds the research commissioned by TE, which examined i.a. financial data and the strategic plans for six builders car: Volkswagen, Stellantis and Toyota to the mass market and BMW, Volvo and Mercedes to the segment premium.
The analysts then modeled Cash flows of the six companies that separate their activities in the field of heat and electric motors in two separate units of business.
Basically, we tried to calculate future value of the car manufacturers market themselves in three different scenarios adoption of the cars in print: In addition to the basic, based on the sales targets currently planned for 2025-2030, we find a scenario slow (where each manufacturer achieves only half of the expected sales of electric cars) e fast.
The fast-paced scenario predicts an accelerated commercialization of battery-powered models hitting 100% by 2035.
Well, it is estimated that I operating profit margin Electric car companies will overtake manufacturers of internal combustion engines in 3-5 years.
And by the end of the 2020s, producers’ margins were on gasoline-diesel engines they should fall and even stay negative balancer.
There market assessment of the six automakers, according to Profundo, could grow by an average of 316% goes faster to electric mobility between 2025 and 2030 compared to current plans.
Volkswagen in particular was able to increase its market value by 253% e Stellantis of 388% compared to today, while Toyotawhich has so far been slower in the process of electrifying its vehicles, apart from hybrid models, has a lower growth potential (around 70%).
On the market premiumthe possibilities are even greater: Mercedes-Benz and BMW could increase their value by 471-472% in 10 years, respectively, while Volvo could increase its shareholder value by 245%; the swedish company is already valued more generously in the market at this stage, analysts specify, thanks to its advantageous position in the electrical race over many competitors.
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