2021 var very positive for the agricultural machinery market and a number of different factors have driven the market significantly: sharp rise in commodity prices, Green Deal, Pnrr, tax deductions, Nuova Sabatini, Psr and Inail supply.
“Italy – confirm Alessandro MalavoltiChairman of FederUnacomain front of an audience of associate designers gathered at the Renato Dall’Ara Stadium in Bologna at the end of March last year for a Thinktank on the current situation – it has grown significantly and even more than Europe, which with 180 thousand tractors marks a + 16%. The export went really well and we reached one production value of 13.7 billion“.
Tractors, sales are not going down
The storm after the silence
Now the scenario has changed. Since February 24, without really getting out of the pandemic, we have entered a war phase that has added uncertainties to those that already emerged at the beginning of the year.
Before the crisis in Ukraine, in February 2022 51% of manufacturers of agricultural machinery consulted by CemaEuropean Organization of Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers, had said it expected one production stoppage in the following four weeks due to lack of suppliers. Between tractor manufacturersto expect this stop was it 64% and went up to 71% among the builders of harvesting machines. The war in Ukraine has significantly worsened the picture.
Uncertain weather at the Cema barometer
To make all this clear is monthly report produced by Cema who “takes the pulse” of the situation by gathering impressions from European agricultural machinery manufacturers.
The mood in March indicates a vertical drop in scores as it has not been seen since the start of the pandemic, despite European industry representatives predicting for 2022 revenue growth by about five percentage points.
The study finds that the losses in relation to export caused by the war in Ukraine – which combined with those in the Russian and Belarusian markets does not quote more than 5% of revenue of companies in the sector – will be compensated from growths in particular in North and South America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand. What worries the manufacturers, and Vdma, the network organization’s important spokesman for mechanical engineering in Germany and Europe, also emphasizes, is lack of components andprice increase.
Qu Dongyudaily manager of FAO, writes that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and Ukraine the fifth. Together, the expert continues, they make sure 19% of the world’s supply of barley and 4% corn and in addition to representing 52% of the world’s supply of sunflower oil, concentrate a good portion of the demand for fertilizer of which Russia is the main producer.
Many European countries that depend on Russia for 50% of their fertilizer supply will experience situations in the coming months lack of the product, but also price increases: That cost of urea in the last 12 months is more than that tripled. The image outlined by the FAO is therefore of food insecurity growing at a time when the prices of the factors of production are already high and unstable.
Urea crisis, a global affair
Russia is also an important player in global energy market with 18% of coal exports, 11% of oil and 10% of gas. Agriculture is energy-intensive and the increase in the cost of energy sources has a significant impact on the agricultural sector.
Carola KantzDeputy for Power-to-X for Vdma applications, explains how, based on the analysis of the long-term energy outlook in Europe, also in relation to Fit for 55, hydrogen and derivatives can compensation gas and oil. The expert emphasizes that it is urgent start with the customization process. It is actually a radical change of energy carriers. THAT advantage of the passage to the new sources, explained by Kantz, would be a production less concentrated and therefore a greater geographical spread compared to fossil fuels, to the full advantage of the freedom of the market, which could detach itself more from the dynamics to which we are exposed today.
What are the risks for agricultural mechanics?
“We must read the signs to arrive, analyze events, study scenarios, keep attention high and make system to penetrate new markets and learn to think in the very short term “ warns Malavolti.
Concerned about what will happen in terms of raw material costs and the absence of one energy policy serious and a industrial policyAlessandro Malavolti calls on companies to seize new opportunities and the country to diversify the supply channels for raw materials. “We need to talk to the Italian and European institutions to push for agricultural mechanics, which is the only way to become more independent, increase arable land and regionalize procurement in European terms. world tradealso given the cost of logistics, it will be increasingly difficult “.